NL Wild-Card Preview: Can Brewers shake playoff woes in opposition to surging Mets?
Since 2018, the Milwaukee Brewers rank third within the Nationwide League with 580 common season wins, have booked six journeys to the post-season and have claimed 4 division titles.
However with only one playoff sequence win to point out for it, the Brewers have been unable to resolve the puzzle of October baseball. They’ll get their probability this yr in opposition to the New York Mets, who’ve continued to shock in what was broadly thought-about a transition season. However don’t inform these Mets, as they’ve continued to show there’s no counting this group out.
On the opposite facet of the NL bracket, the San Diego Padres will welcome the Atlanta Braves to Petco Park. After buying and selling away Juan Soto, the Padres have emerged as probably the most balanced groups in baseball, and appear to be peaking on the proper time.
Simply making the playoffs proved to be a problem for the injury-laden Braves. However now that it’s in, Atlanta will look to recapture a number of the magic from its 2021 World Collection run.
With all that mentioned, let’s dive into each matchups.
No. 3 Milwaukee Brewers (93-69) vs. No. 6 New York Mets (89-73)
Brewers gained the season sequence, 5-1, outscoring the Mets 28-17.
What’s working for the Brewers:
Milwaukee cruised to the NL Central title behind top-of-the-line bullpens in baseball and the emergence of a number of star-level contributors within the lineup. The Brewers bullpen has been stable all yr lengthy however enters the post-season firing on all cylinders. The aid crew is headlined by Devin Williams, Joel Payamps and Aaron Ashby and ranks among the many NL leaders in ERA (2.72), strikeout minus stroll share (18.3) and HR/9 (0.81) because the All-Star break. On the offensive facet, Jackson Chourio slashed .310/.363/.552 with 12 homers within the second half to rank tenth in baseball in fWAR over that span, producing a formidable middle-of-the-order trio alongside Willy Adames and William Contreras.
What’s working for the Mets:
The Mets have rewritten the narrative of their season with an electrical sprint to October, profitable video games at a 105-victory tempo since mid-August. The beginning quartet of Sean Manaea, David Peterson, Luis Severino and José Quintana have achieved some heavy lifting within the second half, serving to New York to the most effective second-half rotation ERA within the Nationwide League (3.47). The probably MVP runner-up, Francisco Lindor, has put his stamp on this Mets season, producing huge swing after huge swing, with maybe none bigger than his ninth-inning heroics in Monday’s doubleheader, clinching New York’s spot within the post-season.
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Potential Achilles heel for the Brewers:
After dropping Corbin Burnes to the Baltimore Orioles and Brandon Woodruff to shoulder surgical procedure within the low season, the Brewers rotation was filled with query marks behind Freddy Peralta getting into 2024. And whereas the likes of Colin Rea and Tobias Myers stepped as much as assist carry Milwaukee by means of the common season, the Brewers nonetheless don’t have a definitive Sport 2 starter behind Peralta. Milwaukee’s starters are additionally limping into October, proudly owning a 5.06 ERA over the ultimate month with the second-worst house run price within the NL.
Potential Achilles heel for the Mets:
Bullpen depth. With the Mets’ post-season hopes coming right down to the wire, they’ve needed to tax their aid corps over the previous few days. That features the 66 pitches nearer Edwin Díaz threw the final two days, which is able to probably have him unavailable for Sport 1 of the wild card. That’ll put some additional stress on the likes of Phil Maton, Reed Garrett and Danny Younger, all of whom have pitched to various ranges of success this season. With a middle-of-the-pack bullpen, issues may get slightly uncomfortable for the Mets all through the sequence if they’re pressured to make use of a few of their much less dependable arms in an enormous spot.
It’ll all come right down to…
If the Brewers can silence Lindor. Since getting back from a again harm that stored him out for simply lower than two weeks, the Mets shortstop has picked up proper the place he left off. He’s picked up six hits and two homers over 4 video games and hasn’t appeared hampered by the again in any respect. He’s New York’s desk setter and finest participant, so the onus falls onto Milwaukee’s employees to restrict his impression.
No. 4 Padres (93-69) vs. No. 5 Atlanta Braves (89-73)
Padres gained the season sequence, 4-3, outscoring the Braves 26-22.
What’s working for the Padres:
For the reason that commerce deadline, San Diego has had MLB’s finest document, its third-best wRC+, ninth-best rotation ERA, and sixth-best bullpen ERA. The Padres are excelling in each aspect of the sport, and their stars are enjoying like stars — Jackson Merrill, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado mixed to go away the yard 17 instances in September. Starters Dylan Stop, Michael King and Joe Musgrove are all sporting sub-3.00 second-half ERAs and get at hand the ball off to a bullpen which owns the most effective Stuff+ quantity in baseball and options skilled late-game pitchers Jason Adam, Tanner Scott and Robert Suarez.
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What’s working for the Braves:
With Ronald Acuña Jr., Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris II and Sean Murphy all lacking vital time this season, the Braves have struggled to push runs throughout the plate. So, whereas Marcell Ozuna shall be on a majority of MVP ballots and Harris and Matt Olson have turned it on in September, it’s been Atlanta’s pitching employees that dragged it right into a seventh-straight post-season look. The Braves ended the yr with the bottom workforce ERA in MLB, and that excellence continued in September as Atlanta pitched to a 2.72 ERA and racked up 269 strikeouts.
Potential Achilles heel for the Padres:
Hitting in opposition to left-handed pitching. Listening to that NL Cy Younger favorite Chris Sale will probably miss the wild-card sequence should have been music to Padres hitters’ ears, as San Diego has struggled in opposition to southpaws all season lengthy. For the reason that commerce deadline, the Padres have a .671 OPS in opposition to lefties, an excessive dropoff from their .784 mark in opposition to righties. Atlanta southpaw Max Fried is lined as much as begin Sport 2 of the sequence, so if Sale someway finds a approach to pitch, there may very well be simply sufficient of a chink in San Diego’s armour for the Braves to capitalize on.
Potential Achilles heel for the Braves:
Nearly as good as Atlanta’s pitching has been this season, it’s in for a severe take a look at the following few days. Between Sale’s unclear standing, having to make use of leverage relievers Joe Jiménez and Raisel Iglesias in each halves on the doubleheader and having Spencer Schwellenbach and Charlie Morton pitch within the days main as much as Sport 1 of the wild card, the Braves may very well be severely shorthanded to open the sequence. Whereas Fried and Reynaldo Lopez are set for Video games 2 and three, Atlanta must win one of many first two to make that matter.
It’ll all come right down to…
If Atlanta’s hitters can clear up San Diego’s pitching. High-to-bottom, the Padres may need the most effective group of arms of any workforce within the post-season. With 4 legit starters and 6 relievers you’ll be able to belief, the Braves’ bats are going to want to discover a gear that’s been largely out of attain for them this yr in the event that they wish to pull off the upset.
